Production forecasts are more timely than competitors and integrated to price and rig activity levels
State and EIA data are delayed and subject to frequent revisions
Pipeline flow data ensures gas forecasts are calibrated accurately and will provide up-to-date signals of changes in production levels
Forecasts are integrated to forward gas and oil prices and rig counts allowing price signals to flow through models and enabling Spring Rock Production to adjust forecasts based on market changes
We are willing to openly talk about models and assumptions used behind the forecasts (rig forecasts, rig efficiencies, well productivities)
Provide clients with weekly production forecast differentials
Detailed Natural Gas Production Forecasts (30+ regional forecasts in Lower 48; 3 regional forecasts in Western Canada)
Drilling Rig Activity Forecasts
Provide frequent ‘Quick Updates’ on production forecasts taking into account gas and crude oil price changes
A detailed Crude Oil Production forecast is currently under development.
Accurate production forecasts will provide the primary insight into supply / demand (storage) balances and resultant market prices.
Timeliness of data analysis and customer communication is the key to adding value. With regards to this, obtaining raw data is a straightforward exercise; however, identifying which data is pertinent and likely to change the analytical framework and trends is paramount to producing an accurate, highly repeatable forecast product. We pride ourselves in maintaining state of the art capabilities to access and process large quantities of production data, which is critical to client confidence in the accuracy of our forecasts.
Our forecasts indicate what will happen utilizing current price and well economics – if production appears too high and the market can’t handle it, the forecast is indicating that prices need to decline in order to shut down drilling.
Only dynamic forecasts can improve overall accuracy and extend the degree of insight further into the future: forecasts are based on forward curves and a lag time to react to those curves – how the curves actualize is a strong determinant of ultimate production levels; value creation across all client types is driven by identifying trend changes and inflection points that will ultimately signal significant reactions in the forward price.
"We spent a good amount of time comparing Spring Rock’s production sample to their competitors; it's the best, by far."
-A Large Energy-Focused Hedge Fund
"We have found Spring Rock's production forecasting and analysis to be among the best natural gas trading tools available. The combination of their background in the field and on the trading floor provides them with a unique understanding of production as well as an extensive list of contacts which they use to quickly identify emerging trends in this arena."
-US-Based Multinational Investment Bank
"Spring Rock's service is great. It saves me so much time to focus on other work. They pay attention to the tiniest details when looking at production so you can feel comfortable they're not missing much. I used to have to go through the various basins myself to come up with a view, now I can spend time focusing on other things and quite frankly I'm pretty sure their forecast is better than mine."
-International-Based Privately Held Commodity Asset Manager